We are going to try keep this open all day, emulating the redoubtable Richard North over at EUreferendum who is doing the same thing but doubtless doing it better.
The euro dropped like a stricken plane after Reuters put round rumours fromt he "unofficial counts that are supposedly going on all over the place. Lots of wire copy going bananas.
Paddy power paid out on a yes last night, according to AP.
AP now saying that "Early signs point to Irish rejection of European Union treaty" off the back of rumours about unofficial counts... but all just all rumours for now.
Ohmygod whats going on?
Various Irish journos say tallies are "massive" no?
Irish Times say early counts "lean towards no"
But RTE saying picture is mixed
Our view: if they can't win convincingly even in the most pro-euro country in europe then they really are in trouble in the long term.
We just got back a new ICM poll of 1000 voters in the UK which we commissioned - on what woudld happen if there were a referndum in the UK. It woudl be a two-to-one no vote.
"If a referendum were being held in Britain, would you vote for or against the new Lisbon Treaty?"
20 Don't know
Full tables are here
Win or lose we say - "now give us a referednum in Britain"
Richard North says
"Looking good! And more ... and even more. Some were suggesting 60-40 to the "no" campaign, but it is looking firmer - see new updates below. The first official results from the 43 constituencies will start to come through shortly. Full results expected at 3-3.30 (BST)."
RTE now say
"Complete tallies are available from around half the constituencies - although they come with a strong warning that some of them may not be all that accurate.
Judging by those tallies, middle class constituencies like Dublin South, Dublin South East and Dún Laoghaire seem like to have a 60-40 vote in favour of Lisbon.
However the No vote is said to be ahead in Dublin North West, Dublin Central, Cork North Central and South Central, both Kerry constituencies, both Tipperary constituencies, and Galway West."
Garret Fitzgerald calling it a 55% for no
Do we trust him? No.
AP say "I do not see how we're going to claw back our position based on the numbers I'm seeing. It's going pretty much all the way of the 'no' camp," said Pat Rabbitte, former leader of the opposition Labour Party.
Early indications Friday of results from Ireland's crunch EU referendum are "not looking good" for the "yes" campaign, Europe Minister Dick Roche told Agence France-Presse. "From what I hear it is not looking good," he said after the RTE state broadcaster reported that the "yes" vote's support was "in difficulty
David Rennie's thoughts - mainly about Cowen's position in the event of a no.
Finally some more (unofficial) numbers from MarketNews International
In two areas, Mayo (electorate 95250) and Galway East (electorate 80569), the yes camp has already conceded defeat.
In Dublin South-West, there is a report 60 per cent - 40 per cent split in favour of the No side, and this 60:40 tally is repeated in Dublin North-West, Dublin Central, and Dublin North-East.
Elsewhere in the country, tallies from Limerick West indicate a 59 per cent No vote and a 41 Yes vote.
Tipperary South tallies show 50.3 per cent Yes and 49.7 per cent No vote, while Tipperary North tallies indicate a 50:50 split.
Initial tally figures from Sligo-Leitrim suggest a 66 per cent No vote, Roscommon-South Leitrim indicates a 55 per cent No vote, while Donegal South-West (55 per cent No) and Donegal North-East (63 per cent No) are also showing an anti-Lisbon trend.
In Louth, the tally split was reported to be a 57 per cent - 43 per cent in favour of No. In Meath West and East, the split shows a 60-40 percentage advantage to the No side.
Both Kildare constituencies appear to be bucking the trend, however, with early tallies indicating a 57 per cent - 43 per cent vote in favour of Lisbon.
BROWN COMMITS ELECTORAL SUICIDE?
Mark Mardell reports that the no are winning on News 24.
He says Brown phoned Sarkozy to say that he would press ahead with ratification in the event of a NO. That would be total madness - surely? But lets not count chickens here - still think its going to be a yes.
According to http://www.referendum.ie/home/, with 16.74% of the votes counted, the No side is at 53.63% and the Yes side at 46.37%.
Call from Libertas, the Irish No campaign, a bit back.
Q: “Have you definitely won?”
Meanwhile, Neil has done an interview with former Europe Minister Denis MacShane on the Simon Mayo show on Radio Five Live. He is literally shaking with rage and stormed out of the studio before the end of the interview...
Dan Hannan says “the Noes have it, and have it convincingly.”
Official results at 4.
With results in from 28 of the 43 constituencies, the Lisbon Treaty is being beaten by a margin of 53.6% to 46.4%.
That margin is expected to tighten as more results are announced, but the result is not in doubt.
Neil has written some thoughts on what it all means for the speecie.
(THE HAGUE) - The Netherlands, which rejected the EU constitution three years ago, will continue ratifying the Lisbon treaty despite its apparent rejection by Ireland, Prime Minister Jan Peter Balkenende said Friday.
Appalling. Their own people said no by 63%
The BBC are asking how the no campaign were able to so successfully "scaremonger." Their coverage all day apart from Mardell has been extremely iffy.
"The treaty is not dead"
"18 member states have already approved the Treaty... we should go on with the process."
Jackie Davis from the EPC on the BBC:
Barroso's words "reflect the view all across Europe". Presumably not in Ireland.
Czech PM Mirek Topolanek says:
"The rejection of Lisbon Treaty presents a political complication. However the European Union does have a stable legal basis, which enables the Union to continue its functioning in a standard way."
"The consequences of the ‘no’ vote and further proceeding should be discussed at the upcoming European Council meeting. I do not consider Irish vote to be less valid than the French and Dutch vote."
"The Czech Republic will continue preparing itself for the EU Presidency in the first half of 2009 as we have - from the very beginning - reckoned with both possible outcomes of the ratification process."
The hopeless Denis MacShane claimed on News 24 that the Treaty was defeated by Gerry Adams and the Socialist Workers Party. He has finally turned into Comical Ali.
Various Libertas people spoke next. They say they want a more democratic, more transparent Europe with less waste. Not quite what mcshameless was saying.